What is Trend Forecasting?
Trend forecasting is the practice of tracking patterns and behavior in order to predict coming movements and overall trends. My work field of forecasting focuses on human emotional and behavioral shifts as well as aesthetics.
To understand the trends of the future, we must look at what’s happening now. The typical place to start is by researching recent events in social, technological, economic, environmental, political, wellness, and cultural fields.
*While STEEP is the industry standard set of drivers, variations on Wellness and Culture are often added to account for their rising influence.
STEEPWC drivers are key areas that have the power to influence trends. With this data, we can find patterns, identify themes, and use that information determine driving emotions, future scenarios, and opportunity spaces that will be in line with the coming movements and trends.
Ready for more charts?
Great! Now that we have a basic understanding of how trends are forecasted, let’s talk about audience adoption. It’s no secret that some people tend to be more “up-to-date” than others. Different segments adopt trends at varying rates and in segments. The chart below outlines the point at which different types of people adopt trends along the lifespan of a given trend.
This next one isn’t as complex as it looks. I promise.
Trend lifespans overlap. While one trend is fading out, some are reaching the mainstream, and others are just starting to make waves in underground culture.
With this knowledge, we can keep a finger on the pulse, and take action with precision, understanding when to participate in a trend, or when to step back based on our goals and industry.